Amway Odds

I stumbled upon a well typed up blog the other day about Amway Odds. Like all blogs – this one, and mine included – take with a grain of salt since you probably haven’t met any of these people in person before. You have no way of knowing their motives, who they are and if they have fruit on the tree to be talking about what they’re posting about.

I always chuckle how the big bad Amway cult blogs out there will assure you their experiences are 100% true, their stories completely in context, their opinions – unquestionable! And anyone looking into the opportunity will find these “truths” and take it as fact. Scary stuff. Blogspot and wordpress….very reliable sources to trust, indeed. I would hope that people who have bad experiences in University or college don’t start going off on wordpress about it because that would automatically stop thousands of people who take their negative opinion about schools as fact and not look to educate themselves.
Anyway, enough pokes at those negative guys who post almost every single day about how bad WWDB and Amway are. I did have a point to this post.

Right – this blog post I found – I can’t take credit for it but I liked how it went into details with some numbers. People always ask “what are the odds”? Here’s a great post all about that.  Its from 2012 so its about a year or so old but still provides a relevant point of view.

I’ll cut off with a reminder – this is a great opportunity but if you aren’t being taken through an education and qualification process by your potential sponsor and its a hype up / sign up deal – walk away. This business is only as good as the people who will help you. And if you don’t have an opportunity to build a friendship and a trust before you go into business – that’s scary. Check it out, get all of the information your potential upline is able to give you over 3 – 5 weeks and get your questions answered. And if at that point you still have a bad vibe I would say honestly its not a good fit and you should walk away. Those negative guys out there would never say that you were given logical advice by a WWDB IBO though…so maybe I didn’t give you this advice after all….

Family reunion coming up next week in Spokane – going to be absolutely awesome!
Have a great week!

~ C

Credit and original post found at: http://amwayexperience.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/what-are-your-odds-in-amway/

“A common question often comes up when someone is shown the Amway business plan, ‘Can I really do it?’. Well if we look at some of Amway’s published statistics, such as the fact that in 2005, .0120% of “Direct Fulfillment IBOs of Record” qualifed at the Diamond level, and claim that your “odds” of going Diamond are 1 in 8333.

First of all, Amway is not a game of chance. Examining odds and comparing yourself to the average person is a terrible exercise for your self-image. Average in the year 2012 isn’t something to be proud of. A recent article on The Huffington Post revealed, “The latest debt to income ratio calculation indicates the average Canadian household debt to be in excess of 150 percent of annual income.”

Now I sure hope you aren’t making the decisions the average Canadian makes. Spending 150% of your annual income is the reason there is such a wealth gap and massive debt problems for most North Americans and the World. I can almost guarantee the top 2% of Canadian wealth does not spend anywhere near 150% of their income, probably well below 100% of their annual income. So stop comparing yourself to the average person, it’s not healthy, compare yourself to excellence and make decisions that aren’t average to achieve it.

But since this post was written to look at the odds lets dig deep into them, any please stay with me on this one. I am going to show you how to greatly improve your ‘odds’ by putting a little effort into this business plan and by making decisions that aren’t average.

The ‘odds’ of your success vary dramatically based on a number of factors. The first factor is, of course, determining precisely what “success” is for you. For example, in their investigation into a proposed new business opportunity rule, the FTC said that MLM company Shaklee reports 85% of folk who join that company do so purely to receive products at distributor pricing. “Success” for a such a person would be placing an order and receiving it successfully!

If this was your goal in joining Amway (and it is for many people), then I would personally count that as a successful venture.

Goal: Buy Amway products at distributor pricing
Odds of success: 50%

50%?!?!? Surely everyone who registers with Amway as an Amway business owner gets their products at distributor pricing? Well … yes (UK&ROI market aside, which has a slightly different model) … however statistics revealed in the Team vs Quixtar dispute of 2007 show that only 50% of folk who registered with Amway ever placed an order after joining.

I’m sure you’ll agree though, that shopping from Amway is not a game of chance. There are things you can do to influence your success – you could for example, actually place an order! Voila – your “odds” have suddenly doubled to around 100%.

Define what success is for you. Going Diamond in the Amway business is not everyone’s goal.

So what are the real odds of success in Amway for various goals, and what factors influence them? Well, clearly if your goal is wholesale price purchasing, then your odds of success are close enough to 100%if you place an order. Just as clearly, someone who joins and never even places and orders products is extremely unlikely to ever make any money. Indeed, I would suggest the probability of success for that group is 0%. Using this kind of information, just like bookmakers with horses, we can come up with “odds” that better reflect reality.

The 2008 Amway Global Sales Incentive Brochure reports for example that 0.3685% of North American IBOs qualify as Platinums or higher – that’s about 1 in 271. Yet we know that half of those 271 never even place an order, so their “odds” of reaching platinum were effectively zero. So …

If you place an order, your odds of being a platinum are about 1 in 135.

The TEAM vs Quixtar lawsuit in California also revealed that only 23.4% of Amway business owners ever sponsor anyone. While I’m sure there is folk who have qualified platinum purely on customer sales, without having sponsored anyone, it’s likely that the percentage who do so approximates zero. So …

If you sponsor at least one person, your odds of being a platinum are about 1 in 63.

Refining it further, the TEAM case revealed that only 12.9% of Amway business owners ever receive a bonus on downline volume. To receive a bonus you must have a downline and at least 50PV of customer volume, plus be at a higher bonus bracket than the downline.

If you qualify for a bonus on downline volume, then your odds of being a platinum are 1 in 35.

Let’s put this in perspective. If all you do is join Amway and do enough to earn a bonus on downline volume, then already your “odds” of being close to developing a business earning $50,000K/yr+ (Q-12 Platinum) is approaching 1 in 35.

Clearly, earning a profit in the Amway business involves a lot more than simply signing a form and paying the registration fee, I hope that doesn’t surprise you. Taking action makes a difference! Indeed, the BERR vs Amway case in the United Kingdom revealed some even more astounding statistics –

  • only 6% of IBOs bought Amway products to sell on
  • 10% of IBOs make a profit

It’s a reasonable assumption that those agents who made a profit included virtually all of those who sold the product to consumers. If so –

If you have customers, then your “odds” of making a profit from an Amway business are approximately 100%

Amway is not a game of chance. It’s a business. Treat it as such and the odds of success are clearly very good indeed.”

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“How Many People Really Make It?”

“Whats the real percentage of making money in that thing?”

Well, if those doom and gloom blogs are correct, you’ll hear 99% failure rate over and over and over and over again. Because they have said it,typed it, delivered in some form of communication (They’d probably show you in sign language if they could), it must be totally, unabashedly true and as such you might as well forget about it, kid. No one makes it big in that deal.

I didn’t make it, I know of a lot of people who told me they didn’t make it (I’ve never met most of them of course…), their Aunt Jenny didn’t make it and everyone got conned and lost thousands of dollars!

The general idea of this “Its a 99% failure rate! Run away! It can’t work! It can’t be done!” is an interesting concern.  Its basically warning you that low amounts of people really make the good money and that it is ridiculously, insanely hard to not go into debt and you are being lied to.

So lets look at this “concern” in a bit more in depth. The concern basically says this:

“Because there is a perceived high failure rate in this industry / activity / business / job – it is therefore a waste of your time, your money and your resources. Do not attempt to succeed in that industry / activity / business / job – most people fail! (Insinuating that you already will without even knowing you) Most people lose out or don’t make it!

In other words do not try anything that has a perceived high failure rate. They can’t do it, they aren’t doing it, why will it be different for others? If that was the mentality in everything – everyone would be average. There would be no “professionals”. Only amateurs and mediocre’s.

So, with that concern in mind I would challenge those who have this type of concern to keep the same mindset towards all challenges; To all fields that have a high “perceived” failure rate just to be consistent. And with that consistency in mind, I hope they tell their nieces and nephews or their children to never aspire to be anything more than average just as often as they post on their blogs about how most will never make it in the business.

I would hope that they tell their niece or daughter that most little girls don’t make much money by being in Ballet. There are very few ballet stars. The work is hard! Oh so hard! And the money! You’ll go backwards every month paying for your extra schooling and teachers and studio fees and costumes! And there’s a high percentage of failure rate – so chances are, sweetie – you’ll fail too. So just forget about trying to make anything out of your little hobby and have fun for now.

Uncomfortable thought isn’t it? Saying that to a child who wants to really be successful at their activity or sport. Sorry….but there’s more points to be had….

NCAA.org gives us some straight up numbers. Lets start with basketball since I’m a hoops  player and fan.

Men’s Basketball

* High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men`s basketball: Less than one in 35, or 2.9 percent.

* NCAA senior players drafted by an NBA team: Less than one in 75, or 1.3 percent.

* High school senior players eventually drafted by an NBA team: About three in 10,000, or 0.03 percent. That’s roughly the chance of getting four of a kind in the first round of draw poker.

0.03% – 2.9% Based on these numbers and the mentality discussed above – it is INSANE to ever allow your child to dream about making the NBA. ” Now Kevin, only 2.9% make it to the NBA – thats a 97.1% failure rate. With those odds you’ll never make it. Spending money for you to go to basketball camps in the summer, new basketball shoes, driving you to practices and games – we would lose a lot of money. Those developmental camps are scams! There’s no guarantee you’ll make the NBA but they charge hundreds of dollars to help you “develop”. What scammers!” 

Football
* High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men’s football: About one in 17, or 5.8 percent.

* NCAA senior players drafted by an NFL team: About one in 50, or 2.0 percent.

* High school senior players eventually drafted by an NFL team: About nine in 10,000, or 0.09 percent.

That’s about the chance you have an IQ above 150, as measured by the Stanford-Binet test. The average IQ of Ph.D. students is 130.

With a 5.8% chance of playing College ball doing that alone in itself is a victory. But when you get there you go down to a 2% chance you’ll make it to the NFL….with the above mentality this dream would be insanely, totally nuts! “Don’t even try! So many kids fail! They never make it! Its too hard!” Are you starting to see where I’m going with this?

I’m a Canucks fan so lets go with the NHL. Source from CBC – The Fifth Estate – Jim Parcels:

It amazes me of the stories that I have heard about organizations attempting to acquire the services of minor hockey players, some as young as the age of 7 or 8 living in communities 1-3 hours from those teams.  Perks such as guaranteed ice time, video games, bicycles, jackets, track suits and that never ending “exposure” term that gets parents heads spinning.  Those organizations will tell you anything to get your services just to fill a roster spot on their team because there are dozens of other teams out there competing to tell you the same thing.

Recruiters love painting the rosy picture at the “front door” with promises of exposure and elite instruction.  What very few people think of is the not so rosy picture at “back door” of the development process for the 99.999% that pass through minor or junior hockey systems without guaranteed financial returns.

Using the birth year 1975 and registration information from the Ontario Hockey League:
*There were approximately 30,000 players who played minor hockey in Ontario up until the draft from the development ages to the NCAA / OHL (minor league) draft in 1991/1992.

Of that 30,000:

A
* 41 were drafted to NCAA Div 1 teams (0.001%). 
* 23 played at least 1 game (56%)
B
* 232 were drafted to an OHL team when they became eligible (0.008%).  
* Of those players drafted, only 105 played at least 1 game (45.3%).
* Only 90 of these made it through their full 3 – 4 years of eligibility (86%). 

Through these two avenues, 48 players were drafted to the NHL. That is a 0.002% rate of success. The birth year of 1975 was considered to be the best NHL draft year for Ontario players as of 1999. 

And that’s just from one province. We’re not talking the rest of Canada, the US or overseas players.

So where am I going with all of this? Well, if the negative blogs are to believed and the Amway business has a “high failure rate” then no one should do it. In fact they should run away! However you will NEVER see any of these people posting negative blogs about how pro sports are a scam. How very little people who try really end up making it. You will never see these people talking to parents about how they and their child are being scammed! How their child or friend tried to make it pro but failed and many other failed so their kid will fail too.

Oh, but sports are different. Its all about team building and having fun and making friends and learning life skills. Its not about competition. Its just to have fun. Please go say that to a high level athlete’s family. Right to their faces. I dare ya. They have a dream, they have a vision, they have a focus. They know the chances and they are pushing forward to greatness. They know how much it will cost in sporting equipment, how much time in driving to practices and games and out of town tournaments and registration fees. They know the sacrifices.

Is that family dumb? Are they stupid? The failure rates are so high! Why would they put their kid through that? Why would they put themselves through that?

Because others have done it. Every – single – year others are doing it. They’re making it happen. They aren’t listening to the people who snicker at them or tell them its a waste of time.

Now compare becoming a pro athlete to the Amway business. Athlete = talent + hard work. Business = Hard work + ability to learn new skills. Talent is an X factor in pro sports. Its God and/or genetically given (depending on your beliefs). You can’t learn that. Everyone can work hard and put in time. Everyone can learn new skill sets. Everyone can extend their comfort zone.

Alright….rant over. I just get annoyed when I see a common message stating that the failure rate is high (I’ve personally witnessed a lot of pin crossings and retirees in my last 2.5 years of business) which automatically means they believe you aren’t good enough and you can never achieve anything aside from what you have now or what a university degree will give you (or not give you….no guarantees of a job in your field of study by the way).

I’ve shared my numbers to be clear that if you’re partnered up with a solid line of sponsorship that teaches you and coaches you well (and you follow the coaching) in your worst scenario (doing nothing at all except personal use) you’ll break even or at least be pretty damn close. You will not get that in any other business startup.

You may be a part time athlete like myself with no chance of making the NBA or NHL but from what I’ve experienced and seen – people can make it. They are making it. And for someone who wants more, all they need to know is if it’s been done before. And if it has, its doable.

Unless of course you’re a real leader like Roger Bannister. That English fellow who broke the 4 minute mile in 1954. The time that no one had ever beaten before. He pulled it off and now under 4 minutes is expected. Its almost a standard for competitive runners to start at. After he did it, many, many more did it. At least in the Amway business you already have examples to learn from and follow.

Those who say it cannot be done should get out of the way of those who are aspiring to and are doing it.

~ C